Accelerating in Almaty
Chinese EVs are everywhere in Almaty. What does that mean for Central Asia—and for American manufacturers?
Салам Алейкум! I have now spent around a week in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and there are many things which intrigue me while exploring this great city. However, the first thing which I felt compelled to write about is the growing presence of Chinese vehicles on the streets. In particular, I am interested in the cheap and highly functional Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) that have inspired so much anxiety on the part of Western car manufacturers.
Beyond the Great Game
A quick note: one of the things which people disproportionately focus on when discussing contemporary Central Asia is the so-called "Great Game" that is emerging there between the big powers Russia, China, and the United States. There is understandably a lot of interest in the question of how the budding friendship between Russia and China will play out in the context of a developing, growing region that was once a part of the USSR. I am generally not a big fan of viewing the region primarily through this prism, as it removes agency from the Central Asian states themselves and assigns it to outside powers. However, when I was told by a taxi driver that these Chinese vehicles had only just (только что) become affordable due to a change in import taxes, I thought it would be educational to take a deeper dive on this issue.
The streets of Almaty are populated by an interesting mix of automobiles: American Chevrolets, Japanese light trucks, Russian (and sputtering old Soviet) Ladas, and a panoply of Chinese EVs. This is to say nothing of the three (at a minimum) brands of electric scooter which you can easily pick up and drop off throughout the city. From first principles, this indicates to me that in the absence of a national champion, the Kazakhstan car market is relatively unprotected. By simply walking through the streets of Almaty, you can see that many consumers are interested in the Chinese automobiles being produced by BYD, Xpeng, Leapmotor, etc., and that they are able to afford them. How did this become the case?
The Numbers
The proliferation of Chinese EVs in Kazakhstan is a phenomenon you can easily read about in the English-language global press. Tengri News reports that as of May 2025, there was a 66.9% increase in the total number of registered EVs in the country from just a year prior. According to the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, as of December 1, 2024, there were 12,587 registered EVs in the country, a huge increase from the 7,680 registered a year prior. In 2024, Kazakhstan reportedly saw an astonishing 36-fold increase in year-on-year sales of Chinese EVs. And now in 2025, there is reportedly a duty-free import scheme for electric vehicles in place until the end of the year. This appears to be the main policy which made these imported vehicles attractive for taxis and other professional driving services in the city.
EV adoption is not simply a matter of lowering the barriers to market entry, but it depends on local investment in the charging infrastructure that makes their use possible. In Kazakhstan's largest city, the Almaty Social Entrepreneurial Corporation appears to be on top of that, with a plan to create more than 600 charging spaces on allocated plots by the end of 2025. The linked article refers to the project's funding through "local investors," which are companies ostensibly approved on the basis of public bids. Additionally, the cost of charging is capped at 100 tenge, or 0.20 USD, which is in itself a huge incentive for drivers to make the switch from internal combustion engines. Officials have suggested further benefits for EV adoption, such as free or reduced parking and access to the city's bus lanes.
Manufacturing Ambitions
Are there policy goals at play here beyond adopting a more "green" transportation network and reducing costs for consumers? It appears that Kazakhstan is interested in becoming a part of the supply and manufacturing chain itself. Kazakhstani business magnate Kenges Rakishev was quoted by the South China Morning Post as saying: "Kazakhstan is a large consumption economy for EVs, but we also want to see Chinese investors come and build production here." Currently, Chinese manufacturer BYD has a production facility in Jizzakh, Uzbekistan, but none in its neighbor to the north. Since much of Chinese trade with the EU is transited through Kazakhstan, the idea is that the country would be well-positioned to build European-bound vehicles. The strategy of sweetening the deal for these Chinese manufacturers may bear fruit, but it has not yet done so.
My anecdotal experience, based on a few conversations with taxi drivers, says that consumers here like Chinese EVs for reasons of both economy and comfort. While gas in Kazakhstan is some of the cheapest on the planet, it is hard to beat the incredibly low price for charging that is now available. In terms of comfort, these vehicles tend to have some of the most modern conveniences that you can get in a mass-market automobile: wireless charging, sophisticated temperature control, digitized controls over many vehicle functions, etc. It is not just a matter of Chinese EVs being cheap, but rather that they are cheap and yet feel high-end. This is clearly no longer the world of 20 years ago. Chinese products are no longer perceived by global consumers as low-quality, and for good reason!
Implications for American Manufacturers
For those intrigued by how this policy might affect US interests, it is important to note that these manufacturers are gobbling up the U.S. export market share. In 2024, year-on-year sales of Chevrolet vehicles were down by 65.1%. This is despite the fact that there is some domestic production of the Chevrolet Cobalt. In short, the global trend away from increasingly uncompetitive U.S. brands towards, frankly, better Chinese alternatives is playing out here at a fast clip. I have seen some Teslas zipping around Almaty, but I suspect they are more of a high-status or luxury vehicle.
As an American, it feels odd that these cars will probably never be available in the domestic market. The rationale is simple enough to understand. We have plenty of American car brands. After all, there's nothing "fair" about private firms competing against massive state subsidies and investment. But at a certain point, that won't matter. If Chinese EVs continue to take U.S. market share in developing economies, American manufacturers will face a reckoning. Maybe we should just let them into the U.S. now and deal with the shock all at once? Something worth thinking about.
Bottom line: Kazakhstan is taking serious public policy steps to get consumers in electric vehicles, and China appears poised to overwhelmingly dominate the market. The government hopes that it can find a role in future EV manufacturing for the European market.
Originally published on my Substack. Subscribe for future posts.